Showing posts with label Storms. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Storms. Show all posts

Friday, June 12, 2009

Maybe It's Raining Less Than We Thought: Physicists Make A Splash With Raindrops Discovery

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ScienceDaily (June 11, 2009) — It's conventional wisdom in atmospheric science circles: Large raindrops fall faster than smaller drops because they have a greater terminal speed -- i.e., the speed when the downward force of gravity is exactly the same as the upward air resistance.
Now two physicists from Michigan Technological University and colleagues at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National University of Mexico) have discovered that it ain't necessarily so.
Some smaller raindrops can fall faster than bigger ones. In fact, they can fall faster than their terminal speed. In other words, they can fall faster than drops that size and weight are supposed to be able to fall.
And that could mean that the weatherman has been overestimating how much it rains.
The findings of Michigan Tech physics professors Alexander Kostinski and Raymond Shaw—co-authors with Guillermo Montero-Martinez and Fernando Garcia-Garcia on a paper scheduled for publication online June 13, 2009, in the American Geophysical Union's journal Geophysical Research Letters—could improve the accuracy of weather measurement and prediction.
The researchers gathered data during natural rainfalls at the Mexico City campus of the National University of Mexico. They studied approximately 64,000 raindrops over three years, using optical array spectrometer probes and a particle analysis and collecting system. They also modified an algorithm or computational formula to analyze the raindrop sizes.
They found clusters of raindrops falling faster than their terminal speed, and as the rainfall became heavier, they saw more and more of these unexpectedly speedy drops. They think that the "super-terminal" drops come from the break-up of larger drops, which produces smaller fragments all moving at the same speed as their parent raindrop and faster than the terminal speed predicted by their size.
"In the past, people have seen indications of faster-than-terminal drops, but they always attributed it to splashing on the instruments," Shaw explains. He and his colleagues took special precautions to prevent such interference, including collecting data only during extremely calm conditions.
Their findings could significantly alter physicists' understanding of the physics of rain.
"Existing rain models are based on the assumption that all drops fall at their terminal speed, but our data suggest that this is not the case," Shaw and Kostinski say. If rainfall is measured based on that assumption, large raindrops that are not really there will be recorded.
"If we want to forecast weather or rain, we need to understand the rain formation processes and be able to accurately measure the amount of rain," Shaw pointed out.
Taking super-terminal raindrops into account could be of real economic benefit, even if it leads only to incremental improvements in precipitation measurement and forecasting. Approximately one-third of the economy—including agriculture, construction and aviation—is directly influenced by the ability to predict precipitation accurately. "And one-third of the economy is a very large sum of money, even during a recession," Shaw remarks.
The physicists' research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation.
Adapted from materials provided by Michigan Technological University.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Height Of Large Waves Changes According To Month

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ScienceDaily (June 2, 2009) — A team of researchers from the University of Cantabria has developed a statistical model that makes it possible to study the variability of extreme waves throughout the year. Their study has shown that there are seasonal variations in the height of waves reaching Spain's coasts, and stresses the importance of this data in planning and constructing marine infrastructures.
"Anybody who observes waves can see that they are not the same height in winter and summer, but rather that their height varies over time, and we have applied a ‘non- seasonal' statistical model in order to measure extreme events such as these," says Fernando J. Méndez, an engineer at the Institute of Environmental Hydraulics at the University of Cantabria and co-author of a study published recently in the journal Coastal Engineering.
The new model can chart the pattern of extreme waves "with a greater degree of reliability", by studying ‘significant wave height' (Hs) in relation to a specific return period. The Hs is the representative average height of the sea, provided by buoys (it is calculated by measuring one in three of the highest waves), and the return period is the average time needed for the event to happen.
For example, if a wave height of 15 metres is established at a certain point on the coast with a return period of 100 years, this means that, on average, a wave of 15 metres could reach this point once every 100 years. "This can be very useful when it comes to building an oil platform in the sea or a particular piece of coastal infrastructure", explains Méndez.
The researchers have used data recorded between 1984 and 2003 by five coastal buoys located near the cities of Bilbao, in Vizcaya; Gijón, in Asturias; La Coruña, Cádiz and Valencia in order to demonstrate the validity of their model. The results show that extreme Hs values vary according to location and the month of the year.
The meteorological component of extreme waves
The results showed a similar seasonal variation between waves in Bilbao and Gijón, with waves being less than four metres high between May and September, but increasing after this to reach an average height of seven metres between December and January. The period of large waves in La Coruña extends from October to April, because of the city's westerly position and resulting exposure to more prolonged winter storms.
The Atlantic coast of Cádiz, meanwhile, reflects the characteristic calm of this area of sea between July and September, with Hs values below two metres. The figures for December and January, however, can vary a great deal from one year to another, reaching wave heights in excess of six metres.
Waves on the Mediterranean coast at Valencia measure between 3 and 3.5 metres from September until April, although the graphics reveal two peaks during this period, one of which coincides with the start of spring and the other with the autumn months, during which the phenomenon of the gota fría occurs. (Gota fría events are atmospheric cold air pools that cause rapid, torrential and very localised downpours and high winds).
"All these data are of vital importance in terms of coastal management, since they can establish the risk of flooding and are indispensable for the carrying out of marine construction work, for example infrastructure built close to the coast," says Melisa Menéndez, another of the study's authors. "In addition, they make it possible to calculate the likelihood of a maritime storm occurring."
The researcher also stresses that this information could be very useful in helping to better understand some biological processes, such as how the distribution of marine animals is affected by wave swell, and seaweed growth rates, as well as geological processes, such as how particulates and sediments are transported along the coast.
Extreme value theory
The model developed by the Spanish scientists is based on ‘extreme value theory', a recently-developed statistical discipline that aims to quantify the random behaviour of extreme events. The latest advances in this field have made it possible to better study climatic variability at various scales - over a year (seasonality), over consecutive years or decades (which allows climatic patterns to be derived), and over the long term (providing trends).
The study into extreme waves is on the seasonal scale, but the team has also studied extreme sea level values over almost a 100-year period, thanks to data gathered during the 20th Century by a mareograph located in Newlyn, in the United Kingdom. The scientists have already started to obtain information about extreme swell and sea level values at global level as part of a United Nations project to study the sea's impacts on coasts all over the planet, and how these affect climate change.
Journal references:
Melisa Menéndez, Fernando J. Méndez, Cristina Izaguirre, Alberto Luceño e Inigo J. Losada. The influence of seasonality on estimating return values of significant wave height. Coastal Engineering, 2009; 56 (3): 211 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.07.004
Melisa Menendez, Fernando J. Mendez and Inigo J. Losada. Forecasting seasonal to interannual variability in extreme sea levels. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2009; DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsp095
Adapted from materials provided by Plataforma SINC, via AlphaGalileo.

Friday, August 31, 2007

Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts


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Science Daily — NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth's climate warms.
Previous climate model studies have shown that heavy rainstorms will be more common in a warmer climate, but few global models have attempted to simulate the strength of updrafts in these storms. The model developed at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies by researchers Tony Del Genio, Mao-Sung Yao, and Jeff Jonas is the first to successfully simulate the observed difference in strength between land and ocean storms and is the first to estimate how the strength will change in a warming climate, including "severe thunderstorms" that also occur with significant wind shear and produce damaging winds at the ground.
This information can be derived from the temperatures and humidities predicted by a climate computer model, according to the new study published on August 17 in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters. It predicts that in a warmer climate, stronger and more severe storms can be expected, but with fewer storms overall.
Global computer models represent weather and climate over regions several hundred miles wide. The models do not directly simulate thunderstorms and lightning. Instead, they evaluate when conditions are conducive to the outbreak of storms of varying strengths. This model first was tested against current climate conditions. It was found to represent major known global storm features including the prevalence of lightning over tropical continents such as Africa and, to a lesser extent, the Amazon Basin, and the near absence of lightning in oceanic storms.
The model then was applied to a hypothetical future climate with double the current carbon dioxide level and a surface that is an average of 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the current climate. The study found that continents warm more than oceans and that the altitude at which lightning forms rises to a level where the storms are usually more vigorous.
These effects combine to cause more of the continental storms that form in the warmer climate to resemble the strongest storms we currently experience.
Lightning produced by strong storms often ignites wildfires in dry areas. Researchers have predicted that some regions would have less humid air in a warmer climate and be more prone to wildfires as a result. However, drier conditions produce fewer storms. "These findings may seem to imply that fewer storms in the future will be good news for disastrous western U.S. wildfires," said Tony Del Genio, lead author of the study and a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York. "But drier conditions near the ground combined with higher lightning flash rates per storm may end up intensifying wildfire damage instead."
The central and eastern areas of the United States are especially prone to severe storms and thunderstorms that arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds that become stronger at higher altitudes. This combination produces damaging horizontal and vertical winds and is a major source of weather-related casualties. In the warmer climate simulation there is a small class of the most extreme storms with both strong updrafts and strong horizontal winds at higher levels that occur more often, and thus the model suggests that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common with warming.
The prediction of stronger continental storms and more lightning in a warmer climate is a natural consequence of the tendency of land surfaces to warm more than oceans and for the freezing level to rise with warming to an altitude where lightning-producing updrafts are stronger. These features of global warming are common to all models, but this is the first climate model to explore the ramifications of the warming for thunderstorms.
Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.
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