Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Friday, June 12, 2009

Maybe It's Raining Less Than We Thought: Physicists Make A Splash With Raindrops Discovery

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ScienceDaily (June 11, 2009) — It's conventional wisdom in atmospheric science circles: Large raindrops fall faster than smaller drops because they have a greater terminal speed -- i.e., the speed when the downward force of gravity is exactly the same as the upward air resistance.
Now two physicists from Michigan Technological University and colleagues at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National University of Mexico) have discovered that it ain't necessarily so.
Some smaller raindrops can fall faster than bigger ones. In fact, they can fall faster than their terminal speed. In other words, they can fall faster than drops that size and weight are supposed to be able to fall.
And that could mean that the weatherman has been overestimating how much it rains.
The findings of Michigan Tech physics professors Alexander Kostinski and Raymond Shaw—co-authors with Guillermo Montero-Martinez and Fernando Garcia-Garcia on a paper scheduled for publication online June 13, 2009, in the American Geophysical Union's journal Geophysical Research Letters—could improve the accuracy of weather measurement and prediction.
The researchers gathered data during natural rainfalls at the Mexico City campus of the National University of Mexico. They studied approximately 64,000 raindrops over three years, using optical array spectrometer probes and a particle analysis and collecting system. They also modified an algorithm or computational formula to analyze the raindrop sizes.
They found clusters of raindrops falling faster than their terminal speed, and as the rainfall became heavier, they saw more and more of these unexpectedly speedy drops. They think that the "super-terminal" drops come from the break-up of larger drops, which produces smaller fragments all moving at the same speed as their parent raindrop and faster than the terminal speed predicted by their size.
"In the past, people have seen indications of faster-than-terminal drops, but they always attributed it to splashing on the instruments," Shaw explains. He and his colleagues took special precautions to prevent such interference, including collecting data only during extremely calm conditions.
Their findings could significantly alter physicists' understanding of the physics of rain.
"Existing rain models are based on the assumption that all drops fall at their terminal speed, but our data suggest that this is not the case," Shaw and Kostinski say. If rainfall is measured based on that assumption, large raindrops that are not really there will be recorded.
"If we want to forecast weather or rain, we need to understand the rain formation processes and be able to accurately measure the amount of rain," Shaw pointed out.
Taking super-terminal raindrops into account could be of real economic benefit, even if it leads only to incremental improvements in precipitation measurement and forecasting. Approximately one-third of the economy—including agriculture, construction and aviation—is directly influenced by the ability to predict precipitation accurately. "And one-third of the economy is a very large sum of money, even during a recession," Shaw remarks.
The physicists' research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation.
Adapted from materials provided by Michigan Technological University.

Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes


ScienceDaily (June 12, 2009) — Scientists have made the surprising finding that typhoons trigger slow earthquakes, at least in eastern Taiwan. Slow earthquakes are non-violent fault slippage events that take hours or days instead of a few brutal seconds to minutes to release their potent energy. The researchers discuss their data in a study published the June 11, issue of Nature.
"From 2002 to 2007 we monitored deformation in eastern Taiwan using three highly sensitive borehole strainmeters installed 650 to 870 feet (200-270 meters) deep. These devices detect otherwise imperceptible movements and distortions of rock," explained coauthor Selwyn Sacks of Carnegie's Department of Terrestrial Magnetism. "We also measured atmospheric pressure changes, because they usually produce proportional changes in strain, which we can then remove."
Taiwan has frequent typhoons in the second half of each year but is typhoon free during the first 4 months. During the five-year study period, the researchers, including lead author Chiching Liu (Academia Sinica, Taiwan), identified 20 slow earthquakes that each lasted from hours to more than a day. The scientists did not detect any slow events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided with typhoons. Those 11 were also stronger and characterized by more complex waveforms than the other slow events.
"These data are unequivocal in identifying typhoons as triggers of these slow quakes. The probability that they coincide by chance is vanishingly small," remarked coauthor Alan Linde, also of Carnegie.
How does the low pressure trigger the slow quakes? The typhoon reduces atmospheric pressure on land in this region, but does not affect conditions at the ocean bottom, because water moves into the area and equalizes pressure. The reduction in pressure above one side of an obliquely dipping fault tends to unclamp it. "This fault experiences more or less constant strain and stress buildup," said Linde. "If it's close to failure, the small perturbation due to the low pressure of the typhoon can push it over the failure limit; if there is no typhoon, stress will continue to accumulate until it fails without the need for a trigger."
"It's surprising that this area of the globe has had no great earthquakes and relatively few large earthquakes," Linde remarked. "By comparison, the Nankai Trough in southwestern Japan, has a plate convergence rate about 4 centimeters per year, and this causes a magnitude 8 earthquake every 100 to 150 years. But the activity in southern Taiwan comes from the convergence of same two plates, and there the Philippine Sea Plate pushes against the Eurasian Plate at a rate twice that for Nankai."
The researchers speculate that the reason devastating earthquakes are rare in eastern Taiwan is because the slow quakes act as valves, releasing the stress frequently along a small section of the fault, eliminating the situation where a long segment sustains continuous high stresses until it ruptures in a single great earthquake. The group is now expanding their instrumentation and monitoring for this research.
Adapted from materials provided by Carnegie Institution, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Height Of Large Waves Changes According To Month

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ScienceDaily (June 2, 2009) — A team of researchers from the University of Cantabria has developed a statistical model that makes it possible to study the variability of extreme waves throughout the year. Their study has shown that there are seasonal variations in the height of waves reaching Spain's coasts, and stresses the importance of this data in planning and constructing marine infrastructures.
"Anybody who observes waves can see that they are not the same height in winter and summer, but rather that their height varies over time, and we have applied a ‘non- seasonal' statistical model in order to measure extreme events such as these," says Fernando J. Méndez, an engineer at the Institute of Environmental Hydraulics at the University of Cantabria and co-author of a study published recently in the journal Coastal Engineering.
The new model can chart the pattern of extreme waves "with a greater degree of reliability", by studying ‘significant wave height' (Hs) in relation to a specific return period. The Hs is the representative average height of the sea, provided by buoys (it is calculated by measuring one in three of the highest waves), and the return period is the average time needed for the event to happen.
For example, if a wave height of 15 metres is established at a certain point on the coast with a return period of 100 years, this means that, on average, a wave of 15 metres could reach this point once every 100 years. "This can be very useful when it comes to building an oil platform in the sea or a particular piece of coastal infrastructure", explains Méndez.
The researchers have used data recorded between 1984 and 2003 by five coastal buoys located near the cities of Bilbao, in Vizcaya; Gijón, in Asturias; La Coruña, Cádiz and Valencia in order to demonstrate the validity of their model. The results show that extreme Hs values vary according to location and the month of the year.
The meteorological component of extreme waves
The results showed a similar seasonal variation between waves in Bilbao and Gijón, with waves being less than four metres high between May and September, but increasing after this to reach an average height of seven metres between December and January. The period of large waves in La Coruña extends from October to April, because of the city's westerly position and resulting exposure to more prolonged winter storms.
The Atlantic coast of Cádiz, meanwhile, reflects the characteristic calm of this area of sea between July and September, with Hs values below two metres. The figures for December and January, however, can vary a great deal from one year to another, reaching wave heights in excess of six metres.
Waves on the Mediterranean coast at Valencia measure between 3 and 3.5 metres from September until April, although the graphics reveal two peaks during this period, one of which coincides with the start of spring and the other with the autumn months, during which the phenomenon of the gota fría occurs. (Gota fría events are atmospheric cold air pools that cause rapid, torrential and very localised downpours and high winds).
"All these data are of vital importance in terms of coastal management, since they can establish the risk of flooding and are indispensable for the carrying out of marine construction work, for example infrastructure built close to the coast," says Melisa Menéndez, another of the study's authors. "In addition, they make it possible to calculate the likelihood of a maritime storm occurring."
The researcher also stresses that this information could be very useful in helping to better understand some biological processes, such as how the distribution of marine animals is affected by wave swell, and seaweed growth rates, as well as geological processes, such as how particulates and sediments are transported along the coast.
Extreme value theory
The model developed by the Spanish scientists is based on ‘extreme value theory', a recently-developed statistical discipline that aims to quantify the random behaviour of extreme events. The latest advances in this field have made it possible to better study climatic variability at various scales - over a year (seasonality), over consecutive years or decades (which allows climatic patterns to be derived), and over the long term (providing trends).
The study into extreme waves is on the seasonal scale, but the team has also studied extreme sea level values over almost a 100-year period, thanks to data gathered during the 20th Century by a mareograph located in Newlyn, in the United Kingdom. The scientists have already started to obtain information about extreme swell and sea level values at global level as part of a United Nations project to study the sea's impacts on coasts all over the planet, and how these affect climate change.
Journal references:
Melisa Menéndez, Fernando J. Méndez, Cristina Izaguirre, Alberto Luceño e Inigo J. Losada. The influence of seasonality on estimating return values of significant wave height. Coastal Engineering, 2009; 56 (3): 211 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.07.004
Melisa Menendez, Fernando J. Mendez and Inigo J. Losada. Forecasting seasonal to interannual variability in extreme sea levels. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2009; DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsp095
Adapted from materials provided by Plataforma SINC, via AlphaGalileo.