Showing posts with label Tsunamis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tsunamis. Show all posts

Friday, June 12, 2009

Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes


ScienceDaily (June 12, 2009) — Scientists have made the surprising finding that typhoons trigger slow earthquakes, at least in eastern Taiwan. Slow earthquakes are non-violent fault slippage events that take hours or days instead of a few brutal seconds to minutes to release their potent energy. The researchers discuss their data in a study published the June 11, issue of Nature.
"From 2002 to 2007 we monitored deformation in eastern Taiwan using three highly sensitive borehole strainmeters installed 650 to 870 feet (200-270 meters) deep. These devices detect otherwise imperceptible movements and distortions of rock," explained coauthor Selwyn Sacks of Carnegie's Department of Terrestrial Magnetism. "We also measured atmospheric pressure changes, because they usually produce proportional changes in strain, which we can then remove."
Taiwan has frequent typhoons in the second half of each year but is typhoon free during the first 4 months. During the five-year study period, the researchers, including lead author Chiching Liu (Academia Sinica, Taiwan), identified 20 slow earthquakes that each lasted from hours to more than a day. The scientists did not detect any slow events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided with typhoons. Those 11 were also stronger and characterized by more complex waveforms than the other slow events.
"These data are unequivocal in identifying typhoons as triggers of these slow quakes. The probability that they coincide by chance is vanishingly small," remarked coauthor Alan Linde, also of Carnegie.
How does the low pressure trigger the slow quakes? The typhoon reduces atmospheric pressure on land in this region, but does not affect conditions at the ocean bottom, because water moves into the area and equalizes pressure. The reduction in pressure above one side of an obliquely dipping fault tends to unclamp it. "This fault experiences more or less constant strain and stress buildup," said Linde. "If it's close to failure, the small perturbation due to the low pressure of the typhoon can push it over the failure limit; if there is no typhoon, stress will continue to accumulate until it fails without the need for a trigger."
"It's surprising that this area of the globe has had no great earthquakes and relatively few large earthquakes," Linde remarked. "By comparison, the Nankai Trough in southwestern Japan, has a plate convergence rate about 4 centimeters per year, and this causes a magnitude 8 earthquake every 100 to 150 years. But the activity in southern Taiwan comes from the convergence of same two plates, and there the Philippine Sea Plate pushes against the Eurasian Plate at a rate twice that for Nankai."
The researchers speculate that the reason devastating earthquakes are rare in eastern Taiwan is because the slow quakes act as valves, releasing the stress frequently along a small section of the fault, eliminating the situation where a long segment sustains continuous high stresses until it ruptures in a single great earthquake. The group is now expanding their instrumentation and monitoring for this research.
Adapted from materials provided by Carnegie Institution, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Height Of Large Waves Changes According To Month

SOURCE

ScienceDaily (June 2, 2009) — A team of researchers from the University of Cantabria has developed a statistical model that makes it possible to study the variability of extreme waves throughout the year. Their study has shown that there are seasonal variations in the height of waves reaching Spain's coasts, and stresses the importance of this data in planning and constructing marine infrastructures.
"Anybody who observes waves can see that they are not the same height in winter and summer, but rather that their height varies over time, and we have applied a ‘non- seasonal' statistical model in order to measure extreme events such as these," says Fernando J. Méndez, an engineer at the Institute of Environmental Hydraulics at the University of Cantabria and co-author of a study published recently in the journal Coastal Engineering.
The new model can chart the pattern of extreme waves "with a greater degree of reliability", by studying ‘significant wave height' (Hs) in relation to a specific return period. The Hs is the representative average height of the sea, provided by buoys (it is calculated by measuring one in three of the highest waves), and the return period is the average time needed for the event to happen.
For example, if a wave height of 15 metres is established at a certain point on the coast with a return period of 100 years, this means that, on average, a wave of 15 metres could reach this point once every 100 years. "This can be very useful when it comes to building an oil platform in the sea or a particular piece of coastal infrastructure", explains Méndez.
The researchers have used data recorded between 1984 and 2003 by five coastal buoys located near the cities of Bilbao, in Vizcaya; Gijón, in Asturias; La Coruña, Cádiz and Valencia in order to demonstrate the validity of their model. The results show that extreme Hs values vary according to location and the month of the year.
The meteorological component of extreme waves
The results showed a similar seasonal variation between waves in Bilbao and Gijón, with waves being less than four metres high between May and September, but increasing after this to reach an average height of seven metres between December and January. The period of large waves in La Coruña extends from October to April, because of the city's westerly position and resulting exposure to more prolonged winter storms.
The Atlantic coast of Cádiz, meanwhile, reflects the characteristic calm of this area of sea between July and September, with Hs values below two metres. The figures for December and January, however, can vary a great deal from one year to another, reaching wave heights in excess of six metres.
Waves on the Mediterranean coast at Valencia measure between 3 and 3.5 metres from September until April, although the graphics reveal two peaks during this period, one of which coincides with the start of spring and the other with the autumn months, during which the phenomenon of the gota fría occurs. (Gota fría events are atmospheric cold air pools that cause rapid, torrential and very localised downpours and high winds).
"All these data are of vital importance in terms of coastal management, since they can establish the risk of flooding and are indispensable for the carrying out of marine construction work, for example infrastructure built close to the coast," says Melisa Menéndez, another of the study's authors. "In addition, they make it possible to calculate the likelihood of a maritime storm occurring."
The researcher also stresses that this information could be very useful in helping to better understand some biological processes, such as how the distribution of marine animals is affected by wave swell, and seaweed growth rates, as well as geological processes, such as how particulates and sediments are transported along the coast.
Extreme value theory
The model developed by the Spanish scientists is based on ‘extreme value theory', a recently-developed statistical discipline that aims to quantify the random behaviour of extreme events. The latest advances in this field have made it possible to better study climatic variability at various scales - over a year (seasonality), over consecutive years or decades (which allows climatic patterns to be derived), and over the long term (providing trends).
The study into extreme waves is on the seasonal scale, but the team has also studied extreme sea level values over almost a 100-year period, thanks to data gathered during the 20th Century by a mareograph located in Newlyn, in the United Kingdom. The scientists have already started to obtain information about extreme swell and sea level values at global level as part of a United Nations project to study the sea's impacts on coasts all over the planet, and how these affect climate change.
Journal references:
Melisa Menéndez, Fernando J. Méndez, Cristina Izaguirre, Alberto Luceño e Inigo J. Losada. The influence of seasonality on estimating return values of significant wave height. Coastal Engineering, 2009; 56 (3): 211 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.07.004
Melisa Menendez, Fernando J. Mendez and Inigo J. Losada. Forecasting seasonal to interannual variability in extreme sea levels. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2009; DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsp095
Adapted from materials provided by Plataforma SINC, via AlphaGalileo.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Huge undersea mountain found off Indonesia: scientists


This aerial view shows new homes being constructed to the north of Banda Aceh on the island of Sumatra in 2006. A massive underwater mountain discovered off the Indonesian island of Sumatra could be a volcano with potentially catastrophic power, a scientist said Friday.
A massive underwater mountain discovered off the Indonesian island of Sumatra could be a volcano with potentially catastrophic power, a scientist said Friday.
Indonesian government marine geologist Yusuf Surachman said the was discovered earlier this month about 330 kilometres (205 miles) west of Bengkulu city during research to map the seabed's seismic faultlines.
The cone-shaped mountain is 4,600 metres (15,100 feet) high, 50 kilometres in diameter at its base and its summit is 1,300 metres below the surface, he said.
"It looks like a volcano because of its conical shape but it might not be. We have to conduct further investigations," he told AFP.
He denied reports that researchers had confirmed the discovery of a new , insisting that at this stage it could only be described as a "seamount" of the sort commonly found around the world.
"Whether it's active or dangerous, who knows?" he added.
The ultra-deep geological survey was conducted with the help of French scientists and international geophysical company CGGVeritas.
The scientists hope to gain a clearer picture of the undersea lithospheric plate boundaries and seafloor displacement in the area, the epicentre of the catastrophic Asian and tsunami of 2004.
The tsunami killed more than 220,000 people across Asia, including 168,000 people in Aceh province on the northern tip of Sumatra.
is on the so-called Pacific "Ring of Fire," where the meeting of continental plates causes high volcanic and .
(c) 2009 AFP

Monday, May 11, 2009

As Earth's air slowly trickles away into space, will our planet come to look like Venus?

By Kevin J. Zahnle and David C. Catling

Many of the gases that make up Earth’s atmosphere and those of the other planets are slowly leaking into space. Hot gases, especially light ones, evaporate away; chemical reactions and particle collisions eject atoms and molecules; and asteroids and comets occasionally blast out chunks of atmosphere.
This leakage explains many of the solar system’s mysteries. For instance, Mars is red because its water vapor got broken down into hydrogen and oxygen, the hydrogen drifted away, and the surplus oxygen oxidized—in essence, rusted—the rocks. A similar process on Venus let carbon dioxide build up into a thick ocean of air; ironically, Venus’s huge atmosphere is the result of the loss of gases.
One of the most remarkable features of the solar system is the variety of planetary atmospheres. Earth and Venus are of comparable size and mass, yet the surface of Venus bakes at 460 degrees Celsius under an ocean of carbon dioxide that bears down with the weight of a kilometer of water. Callisto and Titan—planet-size moons of Jupiter and Saturn, respectively—are nearly the same size, yet Titan has a nitrogen-rich atmosphere thicker than our own, whereas Callisto is essentially airless. What causes such extremes? If we knew, it would help explain why Earth teems with life while its planetary siblings appear to be dead. Knowing how atmospheres evolve is also essential to determining which planets beyond our solar system might be habitable.
A planet can acquire a gaseous cloak in many ways: it can release vapors from its interior, it can capture volatile materials from comets and asteroids when they strike, and its gravity can pull in gases from interplanetary space. But planetary scientists have begun to appreciate that the escape of gases plays as big a role as the supply. Although Earth’s atmosphere may seem as permanent as the rocks, it gradually leaks back into space. The loss rate is currently tiny, only about three kilograms of hydrogen and 50 grams of helium (the two lightest gases) per second, but even that trickle can be significant over geologic time, and the rate was probably once much higher. As Benjamin Franklin wrote, “A small leak can sink a great ship.” The atmospheres of terrestrial planets and outer-planet satellites we see today are like the ruins of medieval castles—remnants of riches that have been subject to histories of plunder and decay. The atmospheres of smaller bodies are more like crude forts, poorly defended and extremely vulnerable.
Recognizing the importance of atmospheric escape changes our perspective on the solar system. For decades, scientists have pondered why Mars has such a thin atmosphere, but now we wonder: Why does it have any atmosphere left at all? Is the difference between Titan and Callisto a consequence of Callisto’s losing its atmosphere, rather than of Titan having been born of airier stuff? Was Titan’s atmosphere once even thicker than it is today? How did Venus steadfastly cling to its nitrogen and carbon dioxide yet thoroughly lose its water? Did escape of hydrogen help to set the stage for complex life on Earth? Will it one day turn our planet into another Venus?
When the Heat Is OnA spaceship that reaches escape velocity is moving fast enough to break free of a planet’s gravity. The same is true of atoms and molecules, although they usually reach escape velocity less purposefully. In thermal escape, gases get too hot to hold on to. In nonthermal processes, chemical or charged-particle reactions hurl out atoms and molecules. And in a third process, asteroid and comet impacts blast away the air.
Thermal escape is, in some ways, the most common and straightforward of the three. All bodies in the solar system are heated by sunlight. They rid themselves of this heat in two ways: by emitting infrared radiation and by shedding matter. In long-lived bodies such as Earth, the former process prevails; for others, such as comets, the latter dominates. Even a body the size of Earth can heat up quickly if absorption and radiation get out of balance, and its atmosphere—which typically has very little mass compared with the rest of the planet—can slough off in a cosmic instant. Our solar system is littered with airless bodies, and thermal escape seems to be a common culprit. Airless bodies stand out as those where solar heating exceeds a certain threshold, which depends on the strength of the body’s gravity [Purchase the digital edition to see related sidebar].
Thermal escape occurs in two ways. In the first, called Jeans escape, after James Jeans, the English astronomer who described it in the early 20th century, air literally evaporates atom by atom, molecule by molecule, off the top of the atmosphere. At lower altitudes, collisions confine particles, but above a certain altitude, known as the exobase, which on Earth is about 500 kilometers above the surface, air is so tenuous that gas particles hardly ever collide. Nothing stops an atom or molecule with sufficient velocity from flying away into space.
As the lightest gas, hydrogen is the one that most easily overcomes a planet’s gravity. But first it must reach the exobase, and on Earth that is a slow process. Hydrogen-bearing molecules tend not to rise above the lowest layer of atmosphere: water vapor (H2O) condenses out and rains back down, and methane (CH4) is oxidized to form carbon dioxide (CO2). Some water and methane molecules reach the stratosphere and decompose, releasing hydrogen, which slowly diffuses upward until it reaches the exobase. A small amount clearly makes it out because ultraviolet images reveal a halo of hydrogen atoms surrounding our planet [Purchase the digital edition to see related sidebar].
The temperature at Earth’s exobase oscillates but is typically about 1,000 kelvins, implying that hydrogen atoms have an average speed of five kilometers per second. That is less than Earth’s escape velocity at that altitude, 10.8 kilometers per second, but the average conceals a wide range, so some hydrogen atoms still manage to break free of our planet’s gravity. This loss of particles from the energetic tail of the speed distribution explains about 10 to 40 percent of Earth’s hydrogen loss today. Jeans escape also partly explains why our moon is airless. Gases released from the lunar surface easily evaporate off into space.
A second type of thermal escape is far more dramatic. Whereas Jeans escape occurs when a gas evaporates molecule by molecule, heated air can also flow en masse. The upper atmosphere can absorb ultraviolet sunlight, warm up and expand, pushing air upward. As the air rises, it accelerates smoothly through the speed of sound and then attains the escape velocity. This form of thermal escape is called hydrodynamic escape or, more evocatively, the planetary wind—the latter by analogy to the solar wind, the stream of charged particles blown from the sun into interplanetary space.
Dust in the WindAtmospheres rich with hydrogen are the most vulnerable to hydrodynamic escape. As hydrogen flows outward, it can pick up and drag along heavier molecules and atoms with it. Much as the desert wind blows dust across an ocean and sand grains from dune to dune, while leaving cobbles and boulders behind, the hydrogen wind carries off molecules and atoms at a rate that diminishes with their weight. Thus, the present composition of an atmosphere can reveal whether this process has ever occurred.
In fact, astronomers have seen the telltale signs of hydrodynamic escape outside the solar system, on the Jupiter-like planet HD 209458b. Using the Hubble Space Telescope, Alfred Vidal-Madjar of the Paris Astrophysics Institute and his colleagues reported in 2003 that the planet has a puffed-up atmosphere of hydrogen. Subsequent measurements discovered carbon and oxygen in this inflated atmosphere. These atoms are too heavy to escape on their own, so they must have been dragged there by hydrogen. Hydrodynamic loss would also explain why astronomers find no large planets much closer to their stars than HD 209458b is. For planets that orbit within three million kilometers or so of their stars (about half the orbital radius of HD 209458b), hydrodynamic escape strips away the entire atmosphere within a few billion years, leaving behind only a scorched remnant.
This evidence for planetary winds lends credence to ideas put forth in the 1980s about hydrodynamic escape from ancient Venus, Earth and Mars. Three clues suggest this process once operated on these worlds. The first concerns noble gases. Were it not for escape, chemically unreactive gases such as neon or argon would remain in an atmosphere indefinitely. The abundances of their different isotopes would be similar to their original values, which in turn are similar to that of the sun, given their common origin in the solar nebula. Yet the abundances differ.
Second, youthful stars are strong sources of ultraviolet light, and our sun was probably no exception. This radiation could have driven hydrodynamic escape.
Third, the early terrestrial planets may have had hydrogen-rich atmospheres. The hydrogen could have come from chemical reactions of water with iron, from nebular gases or from water molecules broken apart by solar ultraviolet radiation. In those primeval days, asteroids and comets hit more frequently, and whenever they smacked into an ocean, they filled the atmosphere with steam. Over thousands of years the steam condensed and rained back onto the surface, but Venus is close enough to the sun that water vapor may have persisted in the atmosphere, where solar radiation could break it down.
Under such conditions, hydrodynamic escape would readily operate. In the 1980s James F. Kasting, now at Pennsylvania State University, showed that hydrodynamic escape on Venus could have carried away an ocean’s worth of hydrogen within a few tens of millions of years [see “How Climate Evolved on the Terrestrial Planets,” by James F. Kasting, Owen B. Toon and James B. Pollack; Scientific American, February 1988]. Kasting and one of us (Zahnle) subsequently showed that escaping hydrogen would have dragged along much of the oxygen but left carbon dioxide behind. Without water to mediate the chemical reactions that turn carbon dioxide into carbonate minerals such as limestone, the carbon dioxide built up in the atmosphere and created the hellish Venus we see today.
To a lesser degree, Mars and Earth, too, appear to have suffered hydrodynamic losses. The telltale signature is a deficit of lighter isotopes, which are more easily lost. In the atmospheres of Earth and Mars, the ratio of neon 20 to neon 22 is 25 percent smaller than the solar ratio. On Mars, argon 36 is similarly depleted relative to argon 38. Even the isotopes of xenon—the heaviest gas in Earth’s atmosphere apart from pollutants—show the imprint of hydrodynamic escape. If hydrodynamic escape were vigorous enough to sweep up xenon, why did it not sweep up everything else in the atmosphere along with it? To solve this puzzle, we may need to construct a different history for xenon than for the other gases now in the atmosphere.
Hydrodynamic escape may have stripped Titan of much of its air, too. When it descended through Titan’s atmosphere in 2005, the European Space Agency’s Huygens probe found that the ratio of nitrogen 14 to nitrogen 15 is 70 percent of that on Earth. That is a huge disparity given that the two isotopes differ only slightly in their tendency to escape. If Titan’s atmosphere started with the same nitrogen isotopic composition as Earth’s, it must have lost a huge amount of nitrogen—several times the substantial amount it currently has—to bring the ratio down to its present value. In short, Titan’s atmosphere might once have been even thicker than it is today, which only heightens its mystery.
Better Escaping through ChemistryOn some planets, including modern Earth, thermal escape is less important than nonthermal escape. In nonthermal escape, chemical reactions or particle-particle collisions catapult atoms to escape velocity. What nonthermal escape mechanisms have in common is that an atom or molecule reaches a very high velocity as the outcome of a single event that takes place above the exobase, so that bumping into something does not thwart the escapee. Many types of nonthermal escape involve ions. Ordinarily these charged particles are tethered to a planet by its magnetic field, either the global (internally generated) magnetic field—if there is one—or the localized fields induced by the passage of the solar wind. But they find ways to slip out.
In one type of event, known as charge exchange, a fast hydrogen ion collides with a neutral hydrogen atom and captures its electron. The result is a fast neutral atom, which is immune to the magnetic field. This process accounts for 60 to 90 percent of the present loss of hydrogen from Earth and most of the hydrogen loss from Venus.
Another way out exploits a weak spot—dare we say a loophole—in the planet’s magnetic trap. Most magnetic field lines loop from one magnetic pole to the other, but the widest field lines are dragged outward by the solar wind and do not loop back; they remain open to interplanetary space. Through this opening, ions can escape. To be sure, the ions must still overcome gravity, and only the lightest ions such as hydrogen and helium make it. The resulting stream of charged particles, called the polar wind (not to be confused with the planetary wind), accounts for 10 to 15 percent of Earth’s hydrogen loss and almost its entire helium leak.
In some cases, these light ions can sweep up heavier ions with them. This process may explain the xenon puzzle: if the polar wind was more vigorous in the past, it could have dragged out xenon ions. One piece of evidence is that krypton does not have the same isotopic pattern as xenon does, even though it is a lighter gas and, all else being equal, ought to be more prone to escape. The difference is that krypton, unlike xenon, resists ionization, so even a strong polar wind would have left it unaffected.
A third nonthermal process known as photochemical escape operates on Mars and possibly on Titan. Oxygen, nitrogen and carbon monoxide molecules drift into the upper atmosphere, where solar radiation ionizes them. When the ionized molecules recombine with electrons or collide with one another, the energy released splits the molecules into atoms with enough speed to escape.
Mars, Titan and Venus lack global magnetic fields, so they are also vulnerable to a fourth nonthermal process known as sputtering. Without a planetary field to shield it, the upper atmosphere of each of these worlds is exposed to the full brunt of the solar wind. The wind picks up ions, which then undergo charge exchange and escape. Mars’s atmosphere is enriched in heavy nitrogen and carbon isotopes, suggesting that it has lost as much as 90 percent of an earlier atmosphere. Sputtering and photochemical escape are the most likely culprits. In 2013 NASA plans to launch the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission to measure escaping ions and neutral atoms and reconstruct the planet’s atmospheric history.
Inescapable ConsequencesBoth thermal and nonthermal escape are like tiny trickles compared with the huge splash when comets or asteroids crash into planets. If projectiles are sufficiently big and fast, they vaporize both themselves and a similar mass of the surface. The ensuing hot gas plume can expand faster than the escape velocity and drive off the overlying air. The larger the impact energy, the wider the cone of atmosphere ejected. For the asteroid that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, the cone was about 80 degrees wide from the vertical and contained a hundred-thousandth of the atmosphere. An even more energetic impact can carry away the entire atmosphere above a plane that is tangent to the planet.
Another factor determining the width of the cone is the atmospheric density. The thinner the air, the greater the fraction of the atmosphere that gets lost. The implication is gloomy: once a vulnerable atmosphere starts wearing away, impact erosion becomes ever easier until the atmosphere vanishes altogether. Unfortunately, Mars spent its youth in a bad neighborhood near the asteroid belt and, being small, was especially susceptible. Given the expected size distribution of impactors early in a solar system’s history, the planet should have been stripped of its entire atmosphere in less than 100 million years.
The large moons of Jupiter also live in a dangerous neighborhood—namely, deep in the giant planet’s gravitational field, which accelerates incoming asteroids and comets. Impacts would have denuded these moons of any atmospheres they ever had. In contrast, Titan orbits comparatively far from Saturn, where impact velocities are slower and an atmosphere can survive.
In all these ways, escape accounts for much of the diversity of atmospheres, from the lack of air on Callisto and Ganymede to the absence of water on Venus. A more subtle consequence is that escape tends to oxidize planets, because hydrogen is lost more easily than oxygen. Hydrogen escape is the ultimate reason why Mars, Venus and even Earth are red. Most people do not think of Earth as a red planet, but much of the continental crust is red. Soil and vegetation hide this native hue. All three worlds started out the gray-black color of volcanic rock and reddened as the original minerals oxidized to iron oxides (similar to rust). To account for its color, Mars must have lost an ocean of water equivalent to a global layer meters to tens of meters deep.
On Earth, most researchers attribute the accumulation of oxygen 2.4 billion years ago to photosynthetic organisms, but in 2001 we suggested that the escape of hydrogen also played an important role. Microbes break apart water molecules in photosynthesis, and the hydrogen can pass like a baton from organic matter to methane and eventually reach space. The expected amount of hydrogen loss matches the net excess of oxidized material on Earth today.
Escape helps to solve the mystery of why Mars has such a thin atmosphere. Scientists have long hypothesized that chemical reactions among water, carbon dioxide and rock turned the original thick atmosphere into carbonate minerals. The carbonates were never recycled back into carbon dioxide gas because Mars, being so small, cooled quickly and its volcanoes stopped erupting. The trouble with this scenario is that spacecraft have so far found only a single small area on Mars with carbonate rock, and this outcrop probably formed in warm subsurface waters. Moreover, the carbonate theory offers no explanation for why Mars has so little nitrogen or noble gases. Escape provides a better answer. The atmosphere did not get locked away as rock; it dissipated into space.
A nagging problem is that impact erosion ought to have removed Mars’s atmosphere altogether. What stopped it? One answer is simple chance. Large impacts are inherently rare, and their frequency fell off rapidly about 3.8 billion years ago, so Mars may have been spared the final devastating blow. A large impact of an icy asteroid or comet could have deposited more volatiles than subsequent impacts could remove. Alternatively, remnants of Mars’s atmosphere may have survived underground and leaked out after the bombardment had subsided.
Although Earth seems comparatively unscathed by escape, that will change. Today hydrogen escape is limited to a trickle because the principal hydrogen-bearing gas, water vapor, condenses in the lower atmosphere and rains back to the surface. But our sun is slowly brightening at about 10 percent every billion years. That is imperceptibly slow on a human timescale but will be devastating over geologic time. As the sun brightens and our atmosphere warms, the atmosphere will get wetter, and the trickle of hydrogen escape will become a torrent.
This process is expected to become important when the sun is 10 percent brighter—that is, in a billion years—and it will take another billion years or so to desiccate our planet’s oceans. Earth will become a desert planet, with at most a shrunken polar cap and only traces of precious liquid. After another two billion years, the sun will beat down on our planet so mercilessly even the polar oases will fail, the last liquid water will evaporate and the greenhouse effect will grow strong enough to melt rock. Earth will have followed Venus into a barren lifelessness.
This story was originally printed with the title "The Planetary Air Leak"
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)Planetary scientist David C. Catling studies the coupled evolution of planetary surfaces and atmospheres. Formerly at the NASA Ames Research Center, he joined the faculty at the University of Washington in 2001. He is a co- investigator for NASAs Phoenix lander, which completed its mission last December. Kevin J. Zahnle has been a research scientist at the NASA Ames center since 1989. Even by the eclectic standards of planetary science, he has an unusually wide range of interests, from planetary interiors to surfaces to atmospheres. In 1996 Zahnle received the NASA Exceptional Achievement Medal for his work on the impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into Jupiter.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Geologists Recover Rocks Yielding Unprecedented Insights Into San Andreas Fault


Source:

Science Daily — For the first time, geologists have extracted intact rock samples from 2 miles beneath the surface of the San Andreas Fault, the infamous rupture that runs 800 miles along the length of California.
Never before have scientists had available for study rock samples from deep inside one of the actively moving tectonic plate-bounding faults responsible for the world's most damaging earthquakes. Now, with this newly recovered material, scientists hope to answer long-standing questions about the fault's composition and properties.
Altogether, the geologists retrieved 135 feet of 4-inch diameter rock cores weighing roughly 1 ton. They were brought to the surface through a research borehole drilled more than 2.5 miles into the Earth. The last of the cores was brought to the surface in the predawn hours of Sept. 7.
Scientists seeking to understand how the great faults bounding Earth's vast tectonic plates evolve and generate earthquakes have always had to infer the processes through indirect means. Up until now, they could only work with samples of ancient faults exposed at the Earth's surface after millions of years of erosion and uplift, together with computer simulations and laboratory experiments approximating what they think might be happening at the depths at which earthquakes occur.
"Now we can hold the San Andreas Fault in our hands," said Mark Zoback, the Benjamin M. Page Professor in Earth Sciences at Stanford. "We know what it's made of. We can study how it works."
Zoback is one of three co-principal investigators of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) project, which is establishing the world's first underground earthquake observatory. William Ellsworth and Steve Hickman, geophysicists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Menlo Park, Calif., are the other co-principal investigators.
SAFOD, which first broke ground in 2004, is a major research component of EarthScope, a National Science Foundation-funded program being carried out in collaboration with the USGS and NASA to investigate the forces that shape the North American continent and the physical processes controlling earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
"This is tremendously exciting. Obtaining cores from the actively slipping San Andreas Fault is truly unprecedented and will allow truly transformative research and discoveries," said Kaye Shedlock, EarthScope program director at the National Science Foundation.
In the next phase of the experiment, the science team will install an array of seismic instruments in the 2.5-mile-long borehole that runs from the Pacific plate on the west side of the fault into the North American plate on the east. By placing sensors next to a zone that has been the source of many small temblors, scientists will be able to observe the earthquake generation process with unprecedented acuity. They hope to keep the observatory operating for the next 10 to 20 years.
Studying the San Andreas Fault is important because, as Zoback noted, "The really big earthquakes occur on plate boundaries like the San Andreas Fault." The SAFOD site, located about 23 miles northeast of Paso Robles near the tiny town of Parkfield, sits on a particularly active section of the fault that moves regularly. But it does not produce large earthquakes. Instead, it moves in modest increments by a process called creep, in which the two sides of the fault slide slowly past one another, accompanied by occasional small quakes, most of which are not even felt at the surface.
One of the big questions the researchers seek to answer is how, when most of the fault moves in violent, episodic upheavals, can there be a section where the same massive tectonic plates seem, by comparison, to gently tiptoe past each other with the delicate tread of little cat feet"
"There have been many theories about why the San Andreas Fault slides along so easily, none of which could be tested directly until now," Hickman said. Some posit the presence of especially slippery clays, called smectites. Others suggest there may be high water pressure along the fault plane lubricating the surface. Still others note the presence of a mineral called serpentine exposed in several places along the surface trace of the fault, which-if it existed at depth-could both weaken the fault and cause it to creep.
Zoback said the correlation between the occurrence of serpentine, a metamorphosed remnant of old oceanic crust, and the slippery nature of the fault motion in the area has been the subject of speculation for more than 40 years. However, it has never been demonstrated that serpentine actually occurs along the active San Andreas at depth, and the mechanism by which serpentine might limber up the fault was unknown.
Then, in 2005, when the SAFOD drill pierced the zone of active faulting using rotary drilling (which grinds up the rock into tiny fragments), mineralogist Diane Moore of the USGS detected talc in the rock cuttings brought up to the surface. This finding was published in the Aug. 16, 2007, issue of Nature.
"Talc is one of the slipperiest, weakest minerals ever studied," Hickman said.
Might the same mineral that helps keep a baby's bottom smooth also be smoothing the way for the huge tectonic plates" Chemically, it's possible, for when serpentine is subjected to high temperatures in the presence of water containing silica, it forms talc.
Serpentine might also control how faults behave in other ways. "Serpentine can dissolve in ground water as fault particles grind past each other and then crystallize in nearby open pore spaces, allowing the fault to creep even under very little pressure," Hickman said.
The SAFOD borehole cored into two active traces of the fault this summer, both contained within a broad fault "zone" about 700 feet wide. The deeper of the two active fault zones, designated 10830 for its distance in feet from the surface as measured along the curving borehole, yielded an 8-foot-long section of very fine-grained powder called fault gouge. Such gouge is common in fault zones and is produced by the grinding of rock against rock. "What is remarkable about this gouge is that it contains abundant fragments of serpentine that appear to have been swept up into the gouge from the adjacent solid rock," Hickman said. "The serpentine is floating around in the fault gouge like raisins in raisin pudding."
The only way to know what role serpentine, talc or other exotic minerals play in controlling the behavior of the San Andreas Fault is to study the SAFOD core samples in the laboratory.
"To an earthquake scientist, these cores are like the Apollo moon rocks," Hickman said. "Scientists from around the world are anxious to get their hands on them in the hope that they can help solve the mystery of how this major, active plate boundary works."
Will these new samples allow scientists to predict earthquakes" The short answer is no. But research on these samples could provide clues to answer the question of whether earthquakes are predictable. The observatory will allow scientists to begin to address whether there are precursory phenomena occurring within the fault zone.
The other fault zone, called 10480, contains 3 feet of fault gouge. It also produces small earthquakes at a location about 300 feet below the borehole. "Remarkably, we observe the same earthquake rupturing at the same spot on the fault year after year," Ellsworth said. This repeating earthquake, always about a magnitude 2, will be the focus of the observatory to be installed inside the fault in 2008.
Sensitive seismometers and tiltmeters to be installed in the SAFOD borehole directly above the spot that ruptures will observe for the first time the birthing process of an earthquake from the zone where the earthquake energy accumulates. Preliminary observations made in 2006 already have revealed the tiniest earthquakes ever observed-so small they have negative magnitudes.
In early December, a "sample party" will be held at the USGS office in Menlo Park, where the cores will be on display and scientists will offer their proposals to do research projects in a bid to be allowed to analyze part of the core.
Zoback said most of the initial testing will be nondestructive in order to preserve the samples for as long as possible. "But then, some of the material will be made available for testing that simulates earthquakes and fault slip in the lab," he said.
When not being examined, the core samples will be refrigerated and kept moist to prevent the cores and the fluid in them from being disturbed.
Some of the cores will be on display at the press conference to be held Oct. 4 at Stanford University in Tresidder Union's Oak Room.
In addition to funding from the National Science Foundation, USGS and Stanford University, the SAFOD project also has been supported financially by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program.
Note: This story has been adapted from material provided by Stanford University.

Fausto Intilla

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Devastating Earthquake May Threaten Middle East's Near Future, Geologist Predicts


Source:

Science Daily — The best seismologists in the world don’t know when the next big earthquake will hit. But a Tel Aviv University geologist suggests that earthquake patterns recorded in historical documents of Middle Eastern countries indicate that the region’s next significant quake is long overdue.
A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel Aviv University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this imminent danger, Marco, from the school’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, has taken an historical approach to earthquake forecasting by using ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in his assessment. The past holds the key to the future, he says.
“All of us in the region should be worried,” explains Marco, who dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.
Based on the translations of hundreds of documents -- some of the originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults -- Marco has helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit the Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E., 749 C.E., and 1033 C.E. “So roughly,” warns Marco, “we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of 1033.”
Written by monks and clergy, the documents, which span about two millenia, can help determine the location and impact of future quakes on several fault planes cutting through Israel and its neighboring countries, Marco believes. “We use the records, written in churches and monasteries or by hermits in the desert, to find patterns,” he says. Marco credits the help of an international team of historians, who have deciphered the Latin, Greek, and Arabic of the original correspondence.
He continues, “Even if these papers were not ‘officially’ recording history, they hold a lot of information. ... Some are letters to Europe asking for funding of church repairs. And while many of these accounts are told in an archaic religious manner, they help us confirm the dates and location of major calamities. Following these patterns in the past can be a good predictor of the future.”
One of the most cited Christian chroniclers in history upon whom Marco bases some of his conclusions is a ninth-century Byzantine aristocratic monk named Theophanes, venerated today by Catholics. In one manuscript, Theophanes wrote, “A great earthquake in Palestine, by the Jordan and in all of Syria on 18 January in the 4th hour. Numberless multitudes perished, churches and monasteries collapsed especially in the desert of the Holy City.”
While Christian sources helped Marco confirm ancient catastrophes and cast light on future ones, Jewish sources from the Bible also gave him small pieces of the puzzle. A verse in Zachariah (Ch. 14) describes two instances of earthquakes, one of which split apart the Mount of Olives, he says. Muslim clergy have also collected ancient correspondence, which further broadens the picture.
”Earthquakes are a manifestation of deeper processes inside the earth,” Marco says. “My questions and analysis examine how often they occur and whether there is pattern to them, temporally or spatially. I am looking for patterns and I can say that based on ancient records, the pattern in Israel around the Dead Sea region is the most disturbing to us.
“When it strikes and it will this quake will affect Amman, Jordan as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes don’t care about religion or political boundaries,” Marco concludes.
Note: This story has been adapted from material provided by Tel Aviv University.

Fausto Intilla